UDC 322.144:314.18 (477.83)
Baranyak, I. Ye. (2013). Prohnozuvannya tendentsiy rozvytku demohrafichnykh protsesiv u rehioni (na prykladi L'vivs'koyi oblasti) [Forecasting the Trends of Demographic Processes Development in the Regional Dimension (on the example of Lviv Region)]. Rehional'na ekonomika - Regional Economy, 67(1), 131-137. [in Ukrainian].
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Authors

Resume

Current state and trends of the demographic processes development in the Lviv region are analyzed. The basics of the theoretical model of the population number forecast, which contains three connected blocks of the forecast indicators – fertility, mortality, and migration are presented. On the basis of these numbers alteration the forecast tendencies for 2050 are calculated. Due to the statistical modeling the practical results of the demographic forecasting, which are provided in three variants (pessimistic, medium, and optimistic) and can be used for the formation of regional demographic policy development directions, are represented.

Keywords:

mechanical movement of population, organic movement of the population, forecasting of the population quantity, demographic process