UDC 330.341.4.001.57:332.1
Lutskiv, O. M., & Maksymchuk, M. V. (2015). Modelyuvannya strukturnykh zmin v ekonomitsi rehionu [Modeling of structural changes in the economy of the region]. Rehional'na ekonomika - Regional Economy, 78(4). [in Ukrainian].
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Authors

Resume

The focus of the article is drawn to the fact that economic modeling plays an important role in predicting the economic development of the regional economy. Among the indicators indicating the state of economic development we have selected the GRP. Therefore it till be used as a resulting value in the simulation of structural changes. To investigate the liaison between the resulting value (in this case GRP) and the selected factors we applied correlation and regression analysis. An econometric model of quantitative and qualitative assessment of the impact of internal and external factors on the GRP is constructed. As a results of modeling the factors are ranked in terms of their impact on the resulting indicator. The simulation results show that the greatest positive effect on GRP growth comes from increasing employment, and the least – from the volume of goods (works, services) sold. However, the two other factors (import goods and the amount of innovation expenditures) have the opposite effect on the formation of GRP and lead to its reduction. Mutual GRP and employment liaison is modeled in the context of various fields of economic activity. Calculations held show that increasing employment in the financial sector has the greatest positive impact on the growth of GRP, while in a number of other economic sectors this will lead to reduction of the GRP. In particular, the increase in the number of employed in temporary accommodation and catering, public administration and defense and in the field of information technologies and telecommunications will impede the GRP growth. Proportionality coefficient is the main indicator that most accurately reflects the dynamics and nature of structural changes on the meso-economy level. Using it to analyze the qualitative changes in species structure of the regional economy of the Western Ukraine in relation to the region in general and in relation to the structure of the national economy makes it possible to distinguish the two groups of regions, one of which is close to the quality structure of the region’s and the state economy (Lviv, Zakarpattia Chernivtsi region) and shows trends of structural stability; while the other group – appears to be more remote from the standard quality structures both, the state and the region (Volyn, Ivano-Frankivsk, Rivne and Ternopil region) and has a clear evidence of structural instability. The predicted integral coefficient of structural changes (ICSC) for the economy of Ukraine, which was calculated basing on the period 2012-2013 data, during the first period (2014) will range from 0.9% to 7.6% with an average of 3.8% and median value of 3.6%; during the second period (2015) we expect changes in the structure of 1.7% to 14.1%, average is equal to 6.8% and the median - 6.4%; and the third period (2016) will be characterized by the following changes of the ICSC: minimum will be the value of 2.5%, and maximum – 22.7%, average changes expected are of 10.9%, median value – 10.1%. All the distribution histograms achieved as a result of the simulation modeling are characterized by the left-sided asymmetry; the probability to reach the maximum values slightly exceeds 5%. Further studies in this direction should be concerned with modeling of structural processes in the composition of other indicators that characterize the dynamics and trends in socio-economic development of Ukraine, and with improvement of the parametric model that will determine the quality-biased impact of structural parameters on the dynamics of economic development, in our case the GRP growth.

Keywords:

structural changes, economic structure, modeling, gross regional product, factors of influence, structural instability, coefficient of proportionality