UDC 336.22:352(477.83); JEL H71, H72, H77, R51
Nazarkevych, I. B., & Shults, E. P. (2026). Diahnostyka ta modelyuvannya optymizatsiyi podatkovoho potentsialu terytorial'nykh hromad L'vivshchyny v umovakh voyennoho stanu [Diagnostics and modeling of optimization of tax potential of territorial communities of Lviv region in conditions of martial law]. Rehional'na ekonomika - Regional Economy, 121 (3), 21-37. DOI: https://doi.org/10.36818/1562-0905-2026-3-2 [in Ukrainian].
Sources: 22

Authors



Nazarkevych Ihor Bohdanovych

Doctor of Economics, Professor

Associate Professor, Doctoral Postgraduate of the Department of economy of Ukraine n.a. M. Tugan-Baranovsky of the Faculty of Economics of the Ivan Franko National University of Lviv

Contacts: ihor.nazarkevych@lnu.edu.ua

Webpages:

Shults Erik Petrovych

Postgraduate of the Department of regional financial policy of the Dolishniy Institute of Regional Research of NAS of Ukraine

Webpages:

Resume

Objective. To assess the tax capacity of the territorial communities of Lviv Oblast under martial law, to measure the scale of the region’s fiscal polarization, to verify empirically the link between the local tax base and the investment activity of communities, and to justify a matrix model of the tax optimization strategy for community development. Methodology. The study draws on official data of the Finance Department of Lviv Oblast State Administration and open-data portals for 2025-2026 for all 73 communities of the oblast. Structural, correlation-regression and analysis-of-variance methods are applied, together with inequality measurement tools (the Lorenz curve, the Gini coefficient, the decile ratio), positioning of communities against the equalization thresholds (0.9 and 1.1) and matrix positioning in the coordinates of tax base versus investment activity. Results. Deep fiscal polarization is revealed: the gap between the maximum (Sokilnyky, 2.86) and minimum (Strilky, 0.16) index values reaches 17.9 times, the Gini coefficient equals 0.296 and the decile ratio is 6.9 : 1, while 55 communities (75.3 %) receive the base grant. The elasticity model ln K = 2.839 + 0.848·ln I (R? = 0.428; p < 0.001) shows that a 10 % rise in the tax capacity index is associated with an 8.5 % rise in the share of capital expenditure, and the investment activity of donor communities exceeds that of critically subsidized ones by 3.8 times. Originality. For the first time the tax capacity of all 73 communities of the oblast is assessed on wartime data with an econometric verification of the taxation-investment link; a strategy matrix of tax optimization for community development and a scheme-model of its implementation are developed. Practical value. The results can be used to differentiate the policy of strengthening the tax base of communities and to improve the equalization mechanism.

Keywords:

tax capacity, tax capacity index, territorial community, local taxes and fees, horizontal equalization, fiscal polarization, investment activity, strategy matrix, Lviv Oblast