The article analyzes the state of foreign trade in the regions of Ukraine during the war and examines the dynamics and structural changes in the export and import of goods in 2022 compared to 2021. Based on the analysis of changes in the foreign trade in the regions of Ukraine during the war, the main threats to foreign trade security in the regions are identified. The directions for reducing the negative impact of threats on the economy of the regions in the conditions of martial law are determined. Four groups of regions are distinguished based on the peculiarities of the conditions of foreign trade and the level of threats to foreign trade security. The ways of reducing the threats to the foreign trade security in the regions in the conditions of martial law are substantiated. The main measures for regions with a high and significant level of threats include the relocation of enterprises to safe regions, improvement of the logistics of export of goods, and the increase of capacities for the processing of raw materials. For regions with a moderate and low level of threat, it is necessary to ensure the development of processing industry, promote structural transformations of the economy, and activate innovative activities. A mechanism for reducing threats to the foreign trade security of Ukraine’s regions during the period of post-war economic reconstruction is proposed. The main institutional instruments of the mechanism are defined as the Recovery Plan of Ukraine, the Export Strategy of Ukraine, the State Strategy of Regional Development, and strategies for the socio-economic development of regions. Ensuring the effective functioning of the mechanism for reducing threats to foreign trade security requires coordination of the goals and objectives of all institutional instruments and the use of appropriate economic levers. Improvement of the institutional environment of economic activity, including Ukraine’s use of the opportunities provided by the European Commission’s support programs for candidate countries for EU accession, is an important condition for the effectiveness of the proposed mechanism. The objective function of the mechanism for reducing threats to foreign trade security in the regions is to improve the indicators of dynamics, product structure, and efficiency of foreign trade. 

foreign trade security, foreign trade, region, threats, martial law, post-war recovery, institutional tools, economic levers 

The article examines the state of foreign trade security of Ukraine in 2013-2020. Based on the positive dynamics of the integrated indicator of foreign trade security, the compliance of foreign trade indicators with economic security criteria in most regions of Ukraine is verified. The results of calculating the integrated indicator sensitivity to changes in foreign trade security indicators identify the most common threats to foreign trade at the regional level in 2020. Based on a cluster analysis of Ukraine’s regions for foreign trade security in 2020, common features and problems of foreign trade are outlined. The pre-war state of foreign trade of the regions of each group and the peculiarities of export-import operations under martial law are analyzed. Based on the analysis of foreign trade indicators in 2022 and taking into account the factors of foreign trade security, the key threats to each group of regions during the war are identified. Russia’s aggression is the main external threat, which has a systemic nature and determines the state of the economic security of the regions. As a result of the threat of war, domestic threats are growing, caused by the inefficient structure of the regional economy and raw material exports. For the regions where the export of raw materials predominates, the main threats include the imbalance of foreign trade due to a sharp decline in exports as the result of logistics disruption, complete or partial loss of foreign markets, and increasing import dependence. In wartime, the decline in exports of high-tech goods or science-intensive services due to hostilities, destruction of enterprises and telecommunications, and loss of intellectual potential are the greatest threats to foreign trade security of regions with a significant share of high-tech products and science-intensive services. 

foreign trade security, foreign trade, region, threats, cluster analysis, grouping of regions, martial law