Scientific and practical journal
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Regional Economy
   



Sorokovyy Danylo Olehovych



Sorokovyy Danylo Olehovych

Postgraduate of the Department of regional financial policy of the Dolishniy Institute of Regional Research of NAS of Ukraine

Contacts: danylo.sorokovyi@gmail.com

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Coauthors



Voznyak Halyna Vasylivna

Holyns'kyy Yuriy Olehovych



Publications



Repository of Dolishniy Institute of Regional Research UDC 339.747; JEL O18, E62, C40
Voznyak, H. V., Sorokovyy, D. O., & Holynskyy, Yu. O. (2026). Municipal finances in Ukraine and the risks to their fiscal sustainability: the impact of war. Rehional'na ekonomika - Regional Economy, 119 (1), 5-24. DOI: https://doi.org/10.36818/1562-0905-2026-1-1.

Sources: 28


Purpose. The purpose of this article is to conduct a problem-oriented analysis of the financial condition of Ukrainian municipalities and to identify risks to their financial stability amid the russian-Ukrainian war.
Methodology. The methodological framework of the study is based on statistical, structural, and comparative analysis using official open data. The observation period covers 2022-2025, ensuring relative homogeneity of the dataset.
Findings. The analysis of local budget revenues, together with an assessment of changes in the structure of expenditures and intergovernmental transfers, made it possible to identify key risks to the fiscal sustainability of Ukrainian municipalities during the war. The findings indicate that the war led to a decline in local budget revenues at the initial stage of the full-scale invasion and significantly intensified asymmetries in municipal fiscal capacity. The most severe losses were experienced by frontline municipalities, where the destruction of economic potential, population displacement, and the loss of infrastructure resulted in a prolonged decline in own-source revenues. At the same time, municipalities located in relatively safer regions demonstrated revenue growth due to business relocation and the movement of labor resources. The study shows that the structure of local budget revenues has remained relatively stable and continues to be characterized by the dominance of the personal income tax, a substantial share of which in 2022–2023 was generated by the taxation of military personnel’s income. This creates additional risks of fiscal vulnerability and increases municipal dependence on a single revenue source. The research also reveals a growing dependence of local budgets on intergovernmental transfers and a deepening differentiation in the fiscal capacity of municipalities, which in turn constrains the ability of some municipalities to ensure an adequate level of public service provision without external support.
Originality. The risks to financial stability have been systematically identified. It has been shown that these risks are of a spatial and security nature.
Practical value. The practical significance of the results lies in their potential application for improving fiscal equalization mechanisms, as well as for developing policy measures aimed at diversifying local revenue bases and supporting municipalities that have suffered the greatest economic losses as a result of the war. 
local finances, local budgets, war, territorial municipalities, risks, resilience, revenue, expenditure, taxes, transfers, financial stability, financial resources 


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