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Lynnyk Oleksandra Oleksandrivna



Lynnyk Oleksandra Oleksandrivna

Ph.D. of Economics

Assistant of the Department of theoretical and applied economics of the Institute of Administration And Postgraduate Education of the Lviv Polytechnic National University

Contacts: olexandralynnyk@yandex.ua

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Publications



Repository of Institute of Regional Research UDC 336.27:338.24(477)
Lynnyk, O. O. (2015). Formuvannya zovnishn'oho derzhavnoho borhu Ukrayiny u 2010-2014 rr.: prychyny ta naslidky [The formation of the external public debt of Ukraine for 2010-2014: causes and consequences]. Rehional'na ekonomika - Regional Economy, 75(1), 104-114. [in Ukrainian].

Sources: 28


The aim of the article is to identify the main causes of foreign public debt accumulation during 2010-2014. Emphasis is put on the lessons not learned from the previous country’s experience and that of foreign countries and on the possible risks for future public debt servicing. According to the results of the research it was conducted that the rapid growth of foreign public debt was explained as the forced necessity for overcoming the disturbing effects of world financial crisis 2008-2009. Instead of economic recovery as it was expected by the government the country copied the well-known policy choices that drove it in the debt crisis. Among them are: wrong exchange rate policy that apparently contributed to public debt accumulation; low public capital investments in the regions, which tend to decline (in 2014 they were less than 2% to gross capital investments in the investigated regions), which is an alarm signal against a background of FDI flight, tensions in the east of Ukraine, GDP drop, and «galloping» foreign public debt; in conformance with debt intolerance theory, according to which the debt threshold is lower for low income countries, public debt to GDP level is too high for Ukraine; the neglect of IMF recommendations on rising taxes for public when it could have been not so severe as in the present considering strong impoverishment due to crisis; and involvement of IMF as the creditor of last resort that warms of possible defaultable outcome. In the article the positive experience of other countries is considered, namely of Turkey, where the proper exchange rate policy allowed to maintain the «safe» debt levels or Chile and Norway that are famous for the effective systems of managing public financing (in Norway it’s Quality Assurance Scheme and in Chile – National Investment System). Two main risks for future debt servicing are identified – appreciation of dollar and world interest rate rise. As the main stress was laid on the identifying the theoretical aspects of causes and consequences of foreign public debt accumulation the further applied research is encouraged, particularly of the opportunities for investment recovery of the destroyed (Donetsk and Lugansk regions) and other low performing regions and the needed shift from state subsidies to high performing investment and progressive innovations. 
external public debt, adjustment policy, capital investments, IMF, efficiency 


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