Commodity export is one of the most important sources of foreign currency income, the sufficiency of which significantly depends on the socio-economic stability of Ukraine, especially in the face of Russian military aggression. In addition, Ukrainian commodity exports play an important role in the global market of agricultural products, in particular in the markets of Africa and Asia. The purpose of the article is to verify the challenges for Ukrainian commodity exports in the conditions of war and post-war recovery and to justify the scenarios of its further development. The transformations of the dynamics and structure of domestic commodity exports under the influence of full-scale Russian aggression are assessed. Emphasis is placed on the deterioration of the commodity structure of Ukrainian exports in the direction of increasing the share of raw materials in it. The reasons and the range of discrepancies between the value and the physical volume of exports from Ukraine in terms of product groups and individual (most important) goods over a 20-year period (during 2002-2022) are revealed. Challenges and threats to the growth of Ukrainian commodity exports are analytically substantiated, given the country’s raw material orientation, in particular: high dependence on the situation on the global raw materials markets; sale of raw materials (grain, oil, ores, and metals) at low prices; deterioration of foreign trade conditions for Ukraine; a significant component of imports and tolling in exports. Three scenarios of the development of domestic export potential in the war and post-war periods are substantiated. Emphasis is placed on the socio-economic risks from the implementation of an export-oriented development model in Ukraine. Prospects of increasing the export potential in the conditions of the formation of the newest model of national economic development oriented on the expansion of the domestic market, the support of domestic producers, and the strengthening of the state’s participation in stimulating the development of strategic sectors, primarily the defense-industrial complex, machine-building, and the chemical industry, are theoretically justified. 

export, product groups, import, raw products, foreign trade conditions, economic development models 

Industry forms the basis of the economy of all developed European countries and Ukraine in particular, as it makes the largest contribution to commodity exports and innovations, ensuring the reproduction of all other sectors and the social sphere due to the mass production of means of production and consumer goods. The purpose of the article is to identify transformations in the industrial sector of the economy of the regions of Ukraine based on a comprehensive assessment of the activity and effectiveness of its functioning in the current period and in dynamics. The results of the calculations prove that industrial production is mainly concentrated in industrial regions, which also demonstrate the highest current level of product innovation and the greatest return on investment in innovation. These regions are characterized by the highest level of production and labor activity in terms of the volume of industrial products sold and labor productivity. At the same time, during 2011-2021, the industrial potential of Ivano-Frankivska, Kyivska, and Lvivska oblasts significantly increased. Vinnytska, Volynska, Donetska, and Ternopilska oblasts demonstrate the highest dynamics of capital investments in industry during this period, while the leaders in foreign direct investments are Kirovohradska, Poltavska, and Chernihivska oblasts. Lvivska, Kyivska, Odeska, Rivnenska, and Khmelnytska oblasts have achieved a noticeable increase in the values of product innovation indicators. However, in general, innovative activity in the industrial sector of Ukraine’s economy is very low. The majority of innovations were produced in Donetska oblast. The full-scale Russian armed aggression has accelerated the transformation processes that have been taking place in the industrial sector of the national economy over the last 10 years, namely the formation of new industrial centers in Ukraine, still small in scale, but with higher (compared to traditionally industrial regions) values and higher positive dynamics of individual indicators of production, labor, and investment activity of industrial enterprises. Such “new industrial” centers are located in the western and central regions, where the largest number of enterprises from the east have relocated. 

industrial sector of the economy, regions, industrial potential, production and labor activity, investments, innovations, sold products 

Industry forms the basis for the world economy and national economies, in particular, as it provides intermediate and final consumption products to all other sectors (manufacturing, finance, services) and the population. The article aims to develop a methodology for a comprehensive assessment of the industrial sector efficiency at the meso level and its testing on the example of Polish regions. The authors’ methodology includes three main stages of research. The first stage involves calculating the level of industrial economy and innovation of the country and its regions in terms of sales of industrial products, the cost of innovation of industrial enterprises, and net income from the sale of innovative products. The second stage includes an integrated assessment of the industrial sector’s efficiency. For each of the four selected indicators of efficiency (investment, labor, innovation, and profitability), the taxonomic indicators defined as the arithmetic mean of the three standardized indicators are calculated. In the third stage, the regions are ranked according to the values of taxonomic indicators of the current development state and dynamics, as well as the final integrated indicator of the industry efficiency based on the k-average method. The results of the assessments of the industrial sector of the Polish economy according to the authors’ methodology allow distinguishing three groups of regions by type of industry: the first group – traditionally industrial provinces with a high level of the industrial economy but with signs of reduced capacity and increasing product innovation (Mazovia, Lower Silesia, Silesia, Greater Poland, Lesser Poland, Lodz, Pomerania); the second group – voivodships, which occupy a low share in country’s industry, and are characterized by medium or low values of partial indicators of the current state of labor activity but higher indicators of innovation activity and the strongest dynamics (Subcarpathia, Podlaskia, Opole, Lubusz, Lublin); the third group – voivodships, which are characterized by the non-industrial type of economy and mostly low values of industrial activity (Warmia-Masuria, Swietokrzyskie, West Pomerania, Kuyavia-Pomerania). 

industry, regions, efficiency, innovation, taxonomic indicators, integrated assessment 

When planning socio-economic development, the majority of European countries apply approaches set forth in the recommendations for choosing a smart specialization strategy. The methodology of smart specialization is a tool for finding the most competitive, unique sectors of a particular region of the country, the support of which may have a significant positive effect on meso- and macro levels. The article aims to analytically substantiate the criteria for choosing the priority spheres of the smart specialization of the Ukrainian economy on the example of Kharkiv region. This region demonstrates the highest increase in industrial potential and the highest level of innovation in Ukraine. According to the results of the authors’ studies, the trends of key indicators of socio-economic development are established. Among the types of economic activity in Kharkiv region, industry, agriculture, trade, and information and telecommunications are the most promising (from the position of smart specialization). The article empirically proves that the following are the main criteria for choosing directions of smart specialization (specific industries) in the industrial sector of the region’s economy: the innovativeness of products, the efficiency, the level of remuneration. In agriculture, effectiveness is the criterion for choosing smart specialization directions. Its level is reflected in productivity indicators and profitability of production. The choice of trade as a direction of smart specialization of the region is based on two criteria: the specialization in wholesale trade turnover of non-food products; the scale of the domestic component in wholesale trade turnover. The specialization of Kharkiv region in the most innovative segment of information and telecommunication programming, consulting, and related activities indicates the existence of a significant potential for the innovative development of this region. 

smart specialization, socio-economic development, region, criteria, innovation, efficiency 

Light industry is one of the basic strategic segments of national economy, providing 5% of budget revenues and 2.6% of Ukrainian merchandise exports. The purpose of the article is to develop proposals to stimulate the development of light industry in Ukraine on the basis of an assessment of the dynamics of its performance at regional level in the context of main results of production and foreign economic activity. The results of the analysis of production activity in the light industry showed the relative stability of the structure of sales volumes in Ukraine, in which in 2018 clothing production accounted for 41.91%, textile production – 35.64% and leather production – 22.45%. The regional structure of domestic light industry remains little diversified. Export potential of light industry of Ukraine is mainly concentrated in two regions – Lviv (25.48%) and Transcarpathia (17.75%). The peculiarity of Ukrainian exports of light industry goods is the high proportion of finished goods made of toll materials. Hence, the priority task for ensuring the development of domestic light industry is to restore (with further increase) the raw materials production for textile and other industries in Ukraine. To solve this problem, it is necessary to create or modernize the facilities for processing wool, flax, industrial hemp, cotton, as well as for production of artificial and synthetic fibers that should be concentrated in regions with favorable conditions for their cultivation and harvesting. These are the mountainous regions of the Carpathians (wool production), as well as Ternopil, Volyn, Polissia, Kherson and others. The organizational form of implementation of such initiatives should be the creation of agro-industrial parks that operate based on the activities of large and medium-sized enterprises for production and processing of raw materials for needs of light industry. On the other hand, cooperation is a promising form of stimulating the development of small agricultural enterprises (small farmers or individuals). 

light industry, clothing production, leather production, textile production, production, raw materials 

Sufficient supply of woodworking with raw materials while preserving the ecology and rational use of wood is a necessary condition for the functioning of the woodworking industry as one of the key segments of the national economy. The issue is of particular importance given the deepening of world integration processes and the introduction of a moratorium on timber exports from Ukraine. It actualizes the study of the state and dynamics of the formation of raw materials potential of domestic woodworks. The purpose of the article is a structural and dynamic assessment of the economic and environmental aspects of formation of the resource potential of Ukrainian woodworks in comparison with the countries of the European Union, as well as in the regional section by types of wood. In the structure of merchantable wood harvested in Ukraine, fuel wood share increased by 4.3 pp. during 2011-2016, whereas in 2017 it increased by 3.8 pp. compared to 2016 and amounted to 61.4%. Unlike in Ukraine, in the vast majority of EU countries business timber is the basis of the structure of harvested merchantable timber. Thus, in the neighboring countries with similar forest landscape – Poland and the Czech Republic – the share of fuel wood in 2017 was 11.6% and 12.3%, in Slovakia – only 6.3%, and in the EU as a whole – 23. 2%. Hence, the significant deterioration of the structure of the harvested merchantable timber in Ukraine can be interpreted as a threat to environmental, and therefore to national security. On the other hand, the results of the assessments revealed an increase in the volume of commercial timber harvesting in Ukraine (in 18 regions) in 2018, as well as in the level of forest reproduction in the leading regions from the harvesting of merchantable timber (Zhytomyr, Kyiv and Rivne regions) and a decrease in the death rate. The restoration of the logical patterns between the dynamics of the loss of stands and the harvesting of commercial and fuel wood are signs of the beginning of positive tendencies in ensuring the preservation and rationalization of raw potential of domestic woodworks and, at the same time, improving the conditions for deepening the level of wood processing. Further authors’ research in this area will be devoted to the search for effective forms of wood industry development in Ukraine, in particular in the Western region. 

woodworking, logging, structure, liquid wood, business wood, fuel wood 

Despite the tendentious decline in the share of industry in total output, the national economy as a whole has a high level of industrialization, compared to the member states of the European Union. Given the globalization of world economic processes and, as a consequence, increased competition in commodity markets, the industrial sector of the national economy needs relevant assessments, the results of which will provide an analytical basis for the formation of trends in state industrial policy, in particular at the regional level.
The purpose of the article is to conduct a structural and dynamic assessment of the industrial sector of Ukrainian regions economy.
The key indicators that characterize the structure of the industrial sector of the economy and the effectiveness of its functioning are: the share of industry in the release of all types of economic activity, the share of industry in gross value added (GVA) of all types of economic activity, the share of the GVA industry in its output. The results of the calculation of these indicators have shown that during 2013-2015 the structure of the national economy’s industrial sector (by output) and the structure of the industry have undergone some changes in the direction of increasing their share of the processing industry while reducing the share of other types of industrial activity. The most significant of these changes were in the Vinnytsia region.
The results of the integrated assessment of the dynamics of structural indicators of the industrial regions of Ukraine revealed in general the most effective functioning of the industrial sector of Poltava region economy, which is explained by the largest (among the regions) share of extractive industry in it and the development of quarries (in particular, gas extraction). The latter is characterized by the highest share of airborne emissions in production (>50 per cent) among industrial activities. A similar situation was observed in the Kirovohrad and Luhansk regions. Instead, Zaporizhzhya region having occupied the 1-st place among the regions of Ukraine by the level of industrialization in the economy in 2015, was an outsider by the indicator of the industry efficiency. This situation is due to a large share of the processing industry (79.57 per cent) in the structure of the industrial sector of the economy of this region. In general, the smallest part of the industrial activity in the production of processing industry is due to their specificity, which is usually in the presence of significant raw material and energy costs in the cost of products of the processing industry. The lowest share of vehicles in the production is peculiar to the production of chemicals and chemical products (10.92 per cent), while the highest is taken by textiles, clothing, leather and other materials (50.82 per cent). However, the share of highly efficient types of processing industries in the structure of the industrial sector of the economy of the Ukrainian regions is relatively small (<15 per cent).
The results of the conducted research confirmed the need for further restructuring of the industrial sector of the economy of the Ukrainian regions. Gradual optimization of the structure of domestic industry should take place simultaneously in four directions, that is, to cover all types of industrial activities and their subspecies. A key criterion for such an optimization is the increase in socioeconomic efficiency, which means improvement of the airborne security and its structure, in particular, increasing the share of gross operating profit, mixed income. As the implementation of state industrial policy takes place at the regional level, each oblast needs to form the specialized (in accordance with the needs and opportunities of its economy) strategic directions of industrial restructuring and to develop current programs for their practical implementation. 

efficiency, gross value added, industry, output, structure, types of industrial activity 

The implementation of a free trade area between Ukraine and the EU member states actualizes cross-border comparative assessments for identifying the competitive advantages of the industrial sector of national economy. Such assessment is correct for the industry of Ukraine and Poland as neighbors, similar in many socio-economic characteristics. The goal of the article is to compare the competitive advantages of industry of Ukraine and Poland at the national and regional levels according to the system of indicators characterizing the efficiency and activity of industrial enterprises. By integrating the set of primary indicators reflecting production, economic and resource efficiencies, as well as economic, industrial, technological, innovation, investment and export activity of industrial enterprises, the corresponding indices, which together determine the competitiveness of the industrial sector, were calculated. The analysis of general integral index revealed that the competitiveness of Polish industry in all the years of analyzed period (2011-2015) was higher than of that of Ukraine industry. This gap became the largest in 2014 (0.956 points), but in 2015 was reduced to a minimum (0.009 points). The latter reflects a significant intensification of industrial activity in Ukraine. This applies to border regions too. Thus, in 2015 (after a sharp drop in 2014) the gap between the levels of industrial competitiveness of Podkarpackie province and Lviv region increased significantly in favor of the latter and made up 0.092 points (in 2013 the gap was 0.048 points). The largest growth in Lviv region was showed by indices of resource efficiency – labor productivity (1.84 times), assets productivity (1.6 times) and manufacturing activity, i.e. the growth rate of industrial product sales (5.45 times) and the share of industrial products in the volume of sales (1.49 times). Instead, the profitability and innovation activity of industrial enterprises in Lviv region are completely unsatisfactory (and in Ukraine as a whole). As a result, many domestic producers are non-competitive on foreign markets today. To solve this problem, it is necessary on the one hand, to improve macroeconomic conditions for the operation of industrial enterprises in Ukraine towards promotion of domestic demand for domestic industrial products and of its supply increase, as well as towards improvement of quality management system for industrial production and acceleration of international certification of enterprises, and on the other – to increase the efficiency of investment and the level of implementation of the innovations into production. 

industry, competitive advantages, activity, efficiency, integral indices 

The introduction of a free trade zone between Ukraine and the European Union updates the study of dynamics of export-import operations, particularly in terms of product groups. The article aims to determine key trends in the development of foreign trade of Ukraine, and in particular of the Western region, and to work out proposals for improving the balance of payments. The analysis of the dynamics and structure of product export and import found that during the 2013-2016 in Ukraine, and in particular in the Western region, significant changes have occurred in foreign trade. However, in the Western region the nature of these changes (both as to the dynamics and to the structure of export-import operations) was more positive than in Ukraine in general. The results of the calculation of import-export ratio confirmed that major producers in the region – food, wood, light and engineering industries – not only export their products (in priority into the EU markets), but also provide domestic market with them. To overcome the negatives in foreign trade of goods, and thus – to improve the balance of payments, Ukraine needs to implement a set of measures: 1) diversification of the product structures of exports and imports that will minimize the risks related both to the reduced export earnings and to the increased costs on imports in case of world markets decline. For this a list (register) of the potential export product groups should be created for each region as follows: product group ? particular products ? producers. The registry should include those industrial enterprises, which have a higher level of competitive advantages, determined by results of objective comprehensive assessment of domestic producers competitiveness; 2) balancing the structures of export and import in terms of trading partners of Ukraine. In these structures the share of individual countries should not dominate to avoid political and foreign economy risks. For this it is necessary to carry out continuous monitoring of world markets in general, and markets of some macro-regions, as well as to continue the policy of active establishment of foreign relations, particularly at the enterprise level; 3) direction of import substitution policy into enhancing the focusing of certain categories of industrial producers (especially competitive by price) on the domestic markets of both consumer products and industrial ones (goods of intermediate consumption); 4) carrying out the gradual reorientation of investment flows into development of high-tech industries, including through tax and customs stimulation for domestic investors, and through state guarantees for foreign ones. 

export, import, product groups, structure, dynamics, external trade balance